A half-yearly data series by Envicion Studio Research Desk. Every figure below traces to the National Property Information Centre (NAPIC) Property Market Report for the first half of 2026, released 10 September 2026. Methodology is public and stated in full at the bottom of this page.
The headline: Johor is the easiest state to launch in. Selangor is now the hardest.
Developers launched 27,832 residential units in Malaysia in H1 2026 — 25% fewer than a year earlier — and the market still absorbed a smaller share of them: 16.6% sold within the half, down from 22.1%. Completed-but-unsold residential stock rose to 33,094 units (RM17.78 billion), with serviced apartments adding a further 23,375 units (RM19.33 billion). The slowdown was not evenly spread. It split sharply by state — and that split is what the Malaysia Launch Index measures.
Launch Conditions Score — H1 2026 ranking
The score runs 0–100; higher means easier launch conditions. It weighs new-launch absorption at 40%, overhang discipline at 30% and competing pipeline at 30%, normalized across the seven states that launched at least 500 units in the half.
| # | State | Score | Launch absorption | Overhang growth YoY* | Competing pipeline** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johor | 86.6 | 36.5% | +13.1% | 12,576 |
| 2 | Kuala Lumpur | 70.6 | 20.7% | +27.3% | 4,108 |
| 3 | Pulau Pinang | 51.8 | 9.8% | +18.3% | 9,978 |
| 4 | Perak | 50.1 | 9.9% | +25.3% | 8,926 |
| 5 | Negeri Sembilan | 48.6 | 12.1% | +44.5% | 5,474 |
| 6 | Melaka | 47.1 | 19.5% | +73.8% | 3,374 |
| 7 | Selangor | 0.7 | 6.8% | +72.4% | 24,019 |
The five metrics, state by state (H1 2025 → H1 2026)
| State | Units launched | Sold (of launches) | Absorption | Residential overhang | Serviced apt overhang |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaysia | 37,250 → 27,832 | 8,233 → 4,618 | 22.1% → 16.6% | 26,911 → 33,094 | 17,883 → 23,375 |
| Selangor | 8,836 → 8,354 | 1,468 → 570 | 16.6% → 6.8% | 2,465 → 4,185 | 2,303 → 4,034 |
| Johor | 8,055 → 6,697 | 3,251 → 2,445 | 40.4% → 36.5% | 3,209 → 4,222 | 9,323 → 9,946 |
| Pulau Pinang | 1,600 → 2,878 | 30 → 283 | 1.9% → 9.8% | 2,485 → 3,114 | 309 → 192 |
| Kuala Lumpur | 1,746 → 1,610 | 552 → 334 | 31.6% → 20.7% | 3,643 → 3,687 | 4,236 → 6,343 |
| Perak | 4,170 → 1,959 | 957 → 193 | 22.9% → 9.9% | 3,266 → 4,075 | 121 → 169 |
| Negeri Sembilan | 2,828 → 2,378 | 625 → 288 | 22.1% → 12.1% | 1,802 → 2,740 | 799 → 1,018 |
| Melaka | 3,103 → 549 | 622 → 107 | 20.0% → 19.5% | 1,474 → 2,213 | 0 → 349 |
What the data actually says
1. Selangor has flipped from safest to hardest
The default “safe” launch state absorbed only 6.8% of its 8,354 newly launched units in H1 2026 — one in fifteen. Combined overhang grew 72% in a year, and the state carries a 24,019-unit competing pipeline, the largest in the country. Launch volume barely fell, which means developers kept launching into a buyer pool that had already stepped back. Selangor’s problem is not demand disappearing — it is launch congestion.
2. Johor’s overhang headline hides the best launch market in Malaysia
Johor tops every overhang chart — 4,222 residential plus 9,946 serviced apartment units unsold — and that is what gets reported. But launch absorption is 36.5%, 2.2 times the national average, and overhang growth of 13% is the slowest among major states. New, correctly priced launches sell in Johor; it is the legacy serviced-apartment stock that does not. Two different markets share one headline.
3. Penang is small, improving, and mispriced by sentiment
Absorption improved from a near-dead 1.9% to 9.8% while launch volume nearly doubled, and serviced-apartment overhang actually fell. Penang’s constraint sits in its RM200k–400k condominium overhang band — a product problem, not a state problem.
Three practice conclusions for developers
- Launching in Selangor in the next two quarters means out-competing 24,000 unsold units. Delay, reprice, or differentiate hard — when absorption is 6.8%, positioning is the lever, not media spend.
- In Johor, separate your story from the overhang headline. Buyers read “Johor overhang #1”; a launch campaign must pre-empt it with the absorption facts — or the news cycle does your positioning for you.
- Nationally, 65% of unsold completed homes are priced below RM500k. “Affordable” is no longer a positioning safe-house; below-RM500k launches now need the sharpest differentiation of all.
Confirmed vs. assumption
Confirmed (NAPIC, H1 2026 preliminary): all launch, absorption, overhang and value figures on this page; national transactions of 187,320 (RM105.12 billion), down 4.5% by volume and 2.4% by value year on year; residential at 59.3% of volume. Assumption / interpretation (Envicion): the Score weighting (40/30/30); the “launch congestion” reading of Selangor; the RTS and JS-SEZ demand narratives commonly attached to Johor — policy narratives, not NAPIC data. Not claimed: no project-level claims, and no forecast of H2 2026.
Methodology
Score = 40 × norm(new-launch sales performance, H1 2026) + 30 × norm(1 − combined overhang YoY growth) + 30 × norm(1 − competing pipeline), min-max normalized across the seven states that launched at least 500 units in H1 2026. Overhang = NAPIC “completed unsold”: residential (p.82) plus serviced apartments (Table XXIII, p.85). Competing pipeline = H1 2026 residential launches plus unsold units under construction. States below the 500-unit launch threshold are reported but not scored, because small bases distort normalized comparisons. Source: NAPIC, Laporan Pasaran Harta H1 2026, released 10 September 2026 (napic.jpph.gov.my). H1 2025 figures are revised; H1 2026 figures are preliminary and subject to NAPIC revision, which Issue 2 will carry.
The Malaysia Launch Index is published every half-year by Envicion Studio Research Desk, recalculating NAPIC’s official data from the developer’s launch perspective. Citation is welcome with attribution to “Envicion Studio Malaysia Launch Index”; the full data table is available on request. For how these conditions translate into positioning and launch campaigns, see our work as a property marketing agency for Malaysian developers and our market analysis of the Johor Bahru property market in 2026, or talk to us about a launch.